Daily Brief
Thursday, 29 October 2026
Market snapshot · last 24h
Gold -0.37%
$4,036.6
Nasdaq -0.99%
29,683
EUR/USD -0.17%
1.1138
Bitcoin -1.53%
$80,020
Likely market impact typical directional bias under each outcome · not a forecast
▲ rises – little change ▼ falls
Today 12:30 8:30AM ET — US

Core PCE Price Index m/m

also covers: Advance GDP q/q
Better than expectedAs expectedWorse than expected
DXY▲–▼
EUR/USD▼–▲
GBP/USD▼–▲
XAU/USD▼–▲
NQ▼–▲
BTC/USD▼–▲
  • DXY Higher-than-expected inflation suggests the Fed might raise rates more, strengthening the US dollar.
  • EUR/USD Higher-than-expected US inflation tends to strengthen the US dollar, making the euro weaker against it.
  • GBP/USD Higher-than-expected US inflation tends to strengthen the US dollar, making the British pound weaker against it.
  • XAU/USD Gold tends to weaken when the US dollar strengthens, and rallies when real US rates fall.
  • NQ Higher-than-expected inflation can lead to higher interest rates, which may negatively impact equity markets.
  • BTC/USD Bitcoin, like gold, tends to weaken when the US dollar strengthens and real rates rise.
Today 13:15 9:15AM ET — EU

Main Refinancing Rate

also covers: Monetary Policy Statement
Better than expectedAs expectedWorse than expected
EUR/USD▲–▼
DAX▼–▲
DXY▼–▲
XAU/USD▲–▼
  • EUR/USD A more aggressive ECB rate decision tends to strengthen the euro against the US dollar.
  • DAX Higher interest rates can increase borrowing costs, potentially weighing on European equities.
  • DXY A stronger euro tends to weaken the US dollar index, as the euro is a major component.
  • XAU/USD A stronger euro can weaken the US dollar, which tends to support gold prices.
Today 13:45 9:45AM ET — EU

ECB Press Conference

Better than expectedAs expectedWorse than expected
EUR/USD▲–▼
DAX▼–▲
DXY▼–▲
XAU/USD▲–▼
  • EUR/USD A tougher tone in the ECB press conference tends to strengthen the euro against the US dollar.
  • DAX A tougher policy stance can increase borrowing costs, potentially weighing on European equities.
  • DXY A stronger euro tends to weaken the US dollar index, as the euro is a major component.
  • XAU/USD A stronger euro can weaken the US dollar, which tends to support gold prices.

Market Brief: Key Economic Data and Market Moves

What's on the calendar

Today, traders are eyeing several significant economic releases. In the United States, the spotlight is on the Advance GDP figures for the third quarter, with expectations set at a 3.2% growth rate, a notable increase from the previous 1.5%. Additionally, the Core PCE Price Index, a key inflation measure, is anticipated to rise by 0.3%, up from 0.2% last month. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its Main Refinancing Rate, which is expected to remain steady at 2.65%, followed by a Monetary Policy Statement and a press conference.

What's moving

In currency markets, the Indonesian Rupiah is gaining strength, likely due to potential intervention by Bank Indonesia, as the USD/IDR pair moves away from recent highs. Meanwhile, the British Pound is weakening against the US Dollar, trading around 1.3320, following the UK Budget announcement. In commodities, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices have dipped to the mid-$100 range, though the market remains cautious due to ongoing Middle East tensions.

Bottom line

Today's focus is on key economic data releases in the US and Europe, which could influence market directions. Currency and commodity markets are reacting to geopolitical and economic developments, with the Indonesian Rupiah and WTI crude oil showing notable movements.

This brief is a snapshot of public commentary at the time of writing — not financial advice.