Market Brief: September 30, 2026

As we approach the end of September, markets are closely watching key economic indicators and geopolitical events. In Europe, German retail sales showed a modest rebound, while in the U.S., upcoming data releases are set to provide further insights into economic conditions.

What's on the calendar

Today, several significant economic data points are scheduled for release. In the U.S., the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to show an increase of 73,000 jobs, up from the previous 38,000. Additionally, the Core PCE Price Index, a key measure of inflation, is anticipated to rise by 0.3%. The U.S. Final GDP figures will also be released, with expectations holding steady at a 1.5% quarterly increase. Later in the day, President Trump is set to speak, which could influence market sentiment.

What's moving

In Asia, stock markets are gaining ground ahead of the U.S. PCE inflation data, with regional economic data also in focus. In Germany, retail sales rose by 1.3% in August, which was below the expected 2.0% increase but marked a recovery from the previous month's decline. Meanwhile, German import prices surged by 1.0% in August, indicating rising cost pressures.

The Euro remains under pressure, trading near its lowest level since May 2025, as the U.S. Dollar strengthens ahead of the U.S. PCE and GDP data releases. The U.S. Dollar Index is trading near 101.40, reflecting the currency's strength against a basket of major currencies.

Bottom line

Today's market focus is on the upcoming U.S. economic data releases, which are expected to provide further clarity on inflation and employment trends. Meanwhile, the Euro's weakness and rising cost pressures in Germany highlight ongoing economic challenges in Europe.

This brief is a snapshot of public commentary at the time of writing — not financial advice.